KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Group's CIMB Thai has appointed Chakramon Phasukvanich, who had served on the Economic Advisory Team of the Thai Prime Minister’s Office, as chairman of the board with effect from Jan 1.
He takes over from Datuk Robert Cheim Dau Meng, who was the acting chairman since Tawee Butsuntorn completed his office term on April 28, 2009.
CIMB Thai president and chief executive officer Subhak Siwaraksa said Chakramon had a wealth of knowledge and experience, especially in the
fields of economics and finance.
“Chakramon’s credentials are rare and invaluable, as he has not only served as permanent secretary of the Ministry of Industry, but also as secretary general of both the National Economic and Social Development Board and the Board of Investment (BOI),” he said.
The group chief executive of CIMB Group, Datuk Seri Nazir Razak said he was confident Chakramon’s abilities and insight would add tremendous value to the management team at CIMB Thai.
"His appointment is also a reaffirmation of CIMB Group’s commitment to strong growth for our franchise in Thailand,” said Nazir.
Chakramon, 61, graduated with a master’s degree in economics from Chulalongkorn University. At present, he is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand and the Judicial Council of Thailand. He also serves as chairman of the Office of the Civil Service Commission and is a director of PTT Public Co., Ltd.
His previous appointments include being a member of the National Legislative Assembly and Chairman of the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Bank of Thailand.
CIMB Thai has 147 branches. Formerly known as BankThai, it became a part of CIMB Group in 2009, when CIMB Group acquired 93.15% of its shares.
January 5, 2010
January 4, 2010
Pelabur harap indeks meningkat
MINAT terhadap kegiatan memperkemaskan akaun hujung tahun ditunjukkan sesetengah pengurus dana tempatan berjaya menaikkan indeks pada hari terakhir dagangan bagi 2009, ditambah pula kenaikan di pasaran saham global.
Indeks Komposit FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur (FBM KLCI) naik 8.84 mata atau 0.7 peratus minggu lalu untuk ditutup pada 1,272.78 mata.
Pada asas perbandingan tahun-ke-tahun pula, keuntungan besar dua angka sebanyak 45.2 peratus agak lemah jika dibandingkan dengan sesetengah bursa saham Asean, yang menyaksikan kenaikan lebih tinggi atas jangkaan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih besar.
Kenaikan minggu lalu dijana oleh Public Bank (+32 sen), Maybank (+6 sen), IOI Corp (+6 sen), AMMB (+13 sen), Tenaga (+8 sen) dan KLK (+42 sen) mewakili hampir keseluruhan daripada kenaikan indeks.
Purata dagangan harian dan nilai dagangan meningkat sedikit kepada 555.9 juta saham bernilai RM744.6 juta, berbanding purata 429.4 juta saham bernilai RM678.3 juta minggu sebelumnya.
Langkah China menaikkan unjuran pertumbuhan ekonominya dan pengumuman Jepun bahawa ekonomi negara itu akan berkembang buat pertama kalinya dalam tempoh tiga tahun pada tahun ini bermula 1 April ini yang diikuti dengan peningkatan 2.6 peratus keluaran perkilangan bagi November telah memberikan impak positif kepada pasaran saham Asia minggu lalu.
Pasaran saham tempatan turut menerima tempias apabila dana tempatan mencari peluang untuk meningkatkan indeks menjelang penutup dagangan di hujung tahun.
Harapan di kalangan pelabur juga tinggi untuk menyaksikan kenaikan indeks minggu ini tetapi petunjuk teknikal memberikan reaksi berbeza.
Tekanan pengambilan untung selepas kegiatan memperkemaskan akaun hujung tahun boleh mengehadkan kenaikan yang dipacu oleh faktor luaran dalam awal minggu ini setelah berakhirnya cuti panjang.
Berita dari luar dan prestasi bursa asing akan terus memberikan pengaruh ke atas bursa saham tempatan minggu ini.
China dijangka mempamerkan tinjauan yang baik bagi sektor pembuatannya apabila ia mengeluarkan Indeks Pengurus Pembelian bagi Disember pada Jumaat lalu.
Ia adalah sesuatu yang positif kepada syarikat Malaysia yang mempunyai pasaran yang besar di China, terutama pengeluar seperti Unisem dan MPI yang menyaksikan pertumbuhan permintaan yang besar bagi cip dari kalangan sektor telekomunikasi serta produk elektronik pengguna.
Pengumuman data tempahan produk elektronik bagi Amerika Syarikat (AS) untuk Disember dan November hari ini dan esok akan memberikan lebih petunjuk mengenai keadaan ekonomi global serta pengguna AS adalah sebahagian daripadanya.
Momentum teknikal dan petunjuk arah aliran FBM KLCI dijangka terus memberikan isyarat bercampur-campur.
Pilihan saham pula adalah pada saham perbankan seperti AMMB, CIMB, Maybank dan Public Bank yang dijangka menyaksikan kegiatan pengambilan untung minggu ini, terutama Public Bank.
Saham telekomunikasi, Axiata dan TM dijangka menarik lebih banyak pembelian dan bergerak ke arah RM3.
Sementara itu, saham minyak dan gas seperti Dialog, Kencana, SAAG, SapuraCrest dan Scomi Group dijangka meningkat berikutan tekanan pengambilan untung hujung tahun.
Indeks Komposit FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur (FBM KLCI) naik 8.84 mata atau 0.7 peratus minggu lalu untuk ditutup pada 1,272.78 mata.
Pada asas perbandingan tahun-ke-tahun pula, keuntungan besar dua angka sebanyak 45.2 peratus agak lemah jika dibandingkan dengan sesetengah bursa saham Asean, yang menyaksikan kenaikan lebih tinggi atas jangkaan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih besar.
Kenaikan minggu lalu dijana oleh Public Bank (+32 sen), Maybank (+6 sen), IOI Corp (+6 sen), AMMB (+13 sen), Tenaga (+8 sen) dan KLK (+42 sen) mewakili hampir keseluruhan daripada kenaikan indeks.
Purata dagangan harian dan nilai dagangan meningkat sedikit kepada 555.9 juta saham bernilai RM744.6 juta, berbanding purata 429.4 juta saham bernilai RM678.3 juta minggu sebelumnya.
Langkah China menaikkan unjuran pertumbuhan ekonominya dan pengumuman Jepun bahawa ekonomi negara itu akan berkembang buat pertama kalinya dalam tempoh tiga tahun pada tahun ini bermula 1 April ini yang diikuti dengan peningkatan 2.6 peratus keluaran perkilangan bagi November telah memberikan impak positif kepada pasaran saham Asia minggu lalu.
Pasaran saham tempatan turut menerima tempias apabila dana tempatan mencari peluang untuk meningkatkan indeks menjelang penutup dagangan di hujung tahun.
Harapan di kalangan pelabur juga tinggi untuk menyaksikan kenaikan indeks minggu ini tetapi petunjuk teknikal memberikan reaksi berbeza.
Tekanan pengambilan untung selepas kegiatan memperkemaskan akaun hujung tahun boleh mengehadkan kenaikan yang dipacu oleh faktor luaran dalam awal minggu ini setelah berakhirnya cuti panjang.
Berita dari luar dan prestasi bursa asing akan terus memberikan pengaruh ke atas bursa saham tempatan minggu ini.
China dijangka mempamerkan tinjauan yang baik bagi sektor pembuatannya apabila ia mengeluarkan Indeks Pengurus Pembelian bagi Disember pada Jumaat lalu.
Ia adalah sesuatu yang positif kepada syarikat Malaysia yang mempunyai pasaran yang besar di China, terutama pengeluar seperti Unisem dan MPI yang menyaksikan pertumbuhan permintaan yang besar bagi cip dari kalangan sektor telekomunikasi serta produk elektronik pengguna.
Pengumuman data tempahan produk elektronik bagi Amerika Syarikat (AS) untuk Disember dan November hari ini dan esok akan memberikan lebih petunjuk mengenai keadaan ekonomi global serta pengguna AS adalah sebahagian daripadanya.
Momentum teknikal dan petunjuk arah aliran FBM KLCI dijangka terus memberikan isyarat bercampur-campur.
Pilihan saham pula adalah pada saham perbankan seperti AMMB, CIMB, Maybank dan Public Bank yang dijangka menyaksikan kegiatan pengambilan untung minggu ini, terutama Public Bank.
Saham telekomunikasi, Axiata dan TM dijangka menarik lebih banyak pembelian dan bergerak ke arah RM3.
Sementara itu, saham minyak dan gas seperti Dialog, Kencana, SAAG, SapuraCrest dan Scomi Group dijangka meningkat berikutan tekanan pengambilan untung hujung tahun.
Bank terbesar dunia mula operasi di Malaysia Mac
ICBC dapat lesen November lalu, dibenar buka lapan cawangan
INDUSTRIAL and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), bank komersial terbesar dunia yang diberi lesen bank perdagangan susulan persetujuan dua hala Malaysia-China pada November lalu, akan memulakan operasinya di Malaysia, Mac ini.
Sumber industri berkata, bank itu diberi keistimewaan sama seperti bank asing lain yang beroperasi di Malaysia termasuk membuka sehingga lapan cawangan di negara ini.
"ICBC akan membuka pejabatnya di Kuala Lumpur, Mac ini. Ia kini adalah bank terbesar di dunia mengatasi peneraju sebelumnya iaitu Citigroup Inc.
"Buat masa ini, satu-satunya bank dari China yang beroperasi di Malaysia adalah Bank of China (M) Bhd dan kemasukan ICBC berpotensi merangsang perdagangan serta urus niaga merentasi sempadan antara Malaysia-China serta negara di rantau ini," katanya kepada Berita Harian baru-baru ini.
Bank Negara Malaysia memberi lesen operasi di Malaysia kepada ICBC pada 20 November lalu, selepas ia mendapat kelulusan Suruhanjaya Kawal Selia Perbankan China bagi tujuan berkenaan, sebelum itu.
Seorang penganalisis perbankan berkata, kemasukan bank itu juga, akan mewujudkan 'persaingan sihat' dalam industri kewangan tempatan, selain dijangka memperkukuhkan pasaran modal dan merancakkan perbankan Islam di rantau ini.
"China dan Malaysia adalah negara yang memiliki rizab yang besar. Sebelum ini, Amerika Syarikat (AS) menjadi destinasi pelaburan utama dunia, tetapi dengan pengukuhan integrasi kewangan di kalangan negara Asia, maka pelaburan itu dapat dialih ke negara serantau," jelas beliau.
Sementara itu, ICBC dalam kenyataan menerusi laman webnya, berkata Malaysia adalah pasaran penting untuk diterokai dalam menjayakan strategi globalisasi bank itu.
"Selepas penubuhan anak syarikat di Malaysia, kami akan berusaha untuk menyepadukan operasinya dengan pasaran kewangan tempatan dan memainkan peranan aktif dalam merangsang aktiviti ekonomi dan perdagangan dua hala," kata bank itu.
Katanya, langkah itu juga akan menyemarakkan pembangunan ekonomi Malaysia dengan memanfaatkan asas pelanggan Kumpulan ICBC yang besar, kekukuhan modal dan teknologi terkininya.
Malaysia adalah satu daripada rakan dagangan terpenting China dalam Asean. Pada 2008, dagangan dua hala kedua-dua negara berjumlah AS$53.469 bilion, mewakili 25 peratus daripada jumlah keseluruhan dagangan antara China dan negara Asean.
Sementara itu, ICBC yang ditubuhkan pada 1 Januari 1984, kini adalah bank terbesar di dunia dengan jumlah aset bernilai AS$1.6 trilion. Ia memiliki 18,000 cawangan termasuk 106 cawangan dan ejen di luar negara.
Pada Julai 2007, jumlah permodalan pasaran meningkat kepada AS$254 bilion, sekali gus menjadikannya bank paling bernilai di dunia.
INDUSTRIAL and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), bank komersial terbesar dunia yang diberi lesen bank perdagangan susulan persetujuan dua hala Malaysia-China pada November lalu, akan memulakan operasinya di Malaysia, Mac ini.
Sumber industri berkata, bank itu diberi keistimewaan sama seperti bank asing lain yang beroperasi di Malaysia termasuk membuka sehingga lapan cawangan di negara ini.
"ICBC akan membuka pejabatnya di Kuala Lumpur, Mac ini. Ia kini adalah bank terbesar di dunia mengatasi peneraju sebelumnya iaitu Citigroup Inc.
"Buat masa ini, satu-satunya bank dari China yang beroperasi di Malaysia adalah Bank of China (M) Bhd dan kemasukan ICBC berpotensi merangsang perdagangan serta urus niaga merentasi sempadan antara Malaysia-China serta negara di rantau ini," katanya kepada Berita Harian baru-baru ini.
Bank Negara Malaysia memberi lesen operasi di Malaysia kepada ICBC pada 20 November lalu, selepas ia mendapat kelulusan Suruhanjaya Kawal Selia Perbankan China bagi tujuan berkenaan, sebelum itu.
Seorang penganalisis perbankan berkata, kemasukan bank itu juga, akan mewujudkan 'persaingan sihat' dalam industri kewangan tempatan, selain dijangka memperkukuhkan pasaran modal dan merancakkan perbankan Islam di rantau ini.
"China dan Malaysia adalah negara yang memiliki rizab yang besar. Sebelum ini, Amerika Syarikat (AS) menjadi destinasi pelaburan utama dunia, tetapi dengan pengukuhan integrasi kewangan di kalangan negara Asia, maka pelaburan itu dapat dialih ke negara serantau," jelas beliau.
Sementara itu, ICBC dalam kenyataan menerusi laman webnya, berkata Malaysia adalah pasaran penting untuk diterokai dalam menjayakan strategi globalisasi bank itu.
"Selepas penubuhan anak syarikat di Malaysia, kami akan berusaha untuk menyepadukan operasinya dengan pasaran kewangan tempatan dan memainkan peranan aktif dalam merangsang aktiviti ekonomi dan perdagangan dua hala," kata bank itu.
Katanya, langkah itu juga akan menyemarakkan pembangunan ekonomi Malaysia dengan memanfaatkan asas pelanggan Kumpulan ICBC yang besar, kekukuhan modal dan teknologi terkininya.
Malaysia adalah satu daripada rakan dagangan terpenting China dalam Asean. Pada 2008, dagangan dua hala kedua-dua negara berjumlah AS$53.469 bilion, mewakili 25 peratus daripada jumlah keseluruhan dagangan antara China dan negara Asean.
Sementara itu, ICBC yang ditubuhkan pada 1 Januari 1984, kini adalah bank terbesar di dunia dengan jumlah aset bernilai AS$1.6 trilion. Ia memiliki 18,000 cawangan termasuk 106 cawangan dan ejen di luar negara.
Pada Julai 2007, jumlah permodalan pasaran meningkat kepada AS$254 bilion, sekali gus menjadikannya bank paling bernilai di dunia.
Pasaran positif pada tahun baru
KUALA LUMPUR 3 Jan - Harga-harga saham di Bursa Malaysia dijangka memasuki tahun baru dengan aliran positif minggu depan apabila para pelabur kembali ke pasaran ketika terdapat tanda-tanda pemulihan ekonomi dunia yang semakin baik, kata para peniaga.
Penutupan pasaran pada tiga hari Jumaat berturut-turut sejak 17 Disember tahun lalu kerana cuti umum, menghalang sejumlah pelabur membuat pegangan besar dalam cuti hujung minggu yang panjang. Bursa tempatan juga ditutup sempena Sambutan Tahun Baru semalam.
Pasaran saham pada minggu ini dijangka meningkat semula berikutan prospek tahun baru kekal positif sekiranya tahap pemulihan ekonomi dapat dipertahankan, kata seorang peniaga.
Menurut MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd, pertumbuhan pendapatan yang kukuh lebih 20 peratus adalah dijangkakan dalam syarikat-syarikat media, pembinaan, utiliti dan perkapalan.
Bagaimanapun, pertumbuhan pendapatan yang kukuh tidak semestinya bermakna cadangan pelaburan yang positif kerana ia bergantung kepada penilaian, katanya.
''Sektor korporat Malaysia mempunyai kebimbangan tentang penarikan balik pakej rangsangan pada tahun ini.
Kadar faedah akan kembali meningkat semula, sekali gus menjadi isu kewangan yang perlu ditangani oleh syarikat-syarikat,'' kata bank pelaburan itu dalam nota penyelidikannya.
MIDF meramalkan Indeks Komposit Kuala Lumpur FTSE Bursa Malaysia (FBMKLCI) akan bergerak ke paras 1,450 tahun ini.
Pada sepanjang minggu yang baru berakhir, urus niaga adalah sederhana dengan FBM KLCI bergerak dalam 1,264.83 hingga 1,275.22 mata.
Dalam perbandingan Khamis ke Khamis, FBM KLCI meningkat 12.25 mata kepada 1,272.78 daripada 1,260.53 minggu sebelumnya.
Indeks kewangan melonjak 172.90 mata kepada 11,053.40, Indeks Perladangan meningkat 82.82 mata kepada 6,362.91 manakala Indeks Perusahaan susut 2.26 mata kepada 2,654.51.
Indeks FBM Emas meningkat 114.13 mata kepada 8,507.61, Indeks FBM Top 100 bertambah 95.34 mata kepada 8,308.89, Indeks FBM70 naik 155.84 mata kepada 8,269.22 dan Indeks FBM Ace pula 81.06 mata lebih tinggi kepada 4,299.58.
Sejumlah 2.223 bilion saham bernilai RM2.978 bilion bertukar tangan dalam minggu ini berbanding 1.714 bilion saham bernilai RM2.713 billon diniagakan sebelumnya.
Jumlah dagangan di Pasaran Utama meningkat kepada 1.905 bilion unit bernilai RM2.899 bilion daripada penutup Khamis lalu melibatkan 1.471 bilion saham bernilai RM2.656 bilion.
Jumlah dagangan waran panggilan melonjak kepada 104.154 juta unit bernilai RM18.766 milion daripada 46.024 juta unit bernilai RM6.693 juta sebelumnya.
Jumlah dagangan Pasaran ACE bertambah baik kepada 146.994 juta saham bernilai RM39.569 juta daripada Khamis lalu berjumlah 140.415 juta saham bernilai RM35.003 juta
Penutupan pasaran pada tiga hari Jumaat berturut-turut sejak 17 Disember tahun lalu kerana cuti umum, menghalang sejumlah pelabur membuat pegangan besar dalam cuti hujung minggu yang panjang. Bursa tempatan juga ditutup sempena Sambutan Tahun Baru semalam.
Pasaran saham pada minggu ini dijangka meningkat semula berikutan prospek tahun baru kekal positif sekiranya tahap pemulihan ekonomi dapat dipertahankan, kata seorang peniaga.
Menurut MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd, pertumbuhan pendapatan yang kukuh lebih 20 peratus adalah dijangkakan dalam syarikat-syarikat media, pembinaan, utiliti dan perkapalan.
Bagaimanapun, pertumbuhan pendapatan yang kukuh tidak semestinya bermakna cadangan pelaburan yang positif kerana ia bergantung kepada penilaian, katanya.
''Sektor korporat Malaysia mempunyai kebimbangan tentang penarikan balik pakej rangsangan pada tahun ini.
Kadar faedah akan kembali meningkat semula, sekali gus menjadi isu kewangan yang perlu ditangani oleh syarikat-syarikat,'' kata bank pelaburan itu dalam nota penyelidikannya.
MIDF meramalkan Indeks Komposit Kuala Lumpur FTSE Bursa Malaysia (FBMKLCI) akan bergerak ke paras 1,450 tahun ini.
Pada sepanjang minggu yang baru berakhir, urus niaga adalah sederhana dengan FBM KLCI bergerak dalam 1,264.83 hingga 1,275.22 mata.
Dalam perbandingan Khamis ke Khamis, FBM KLCI meningkat 12.25 mata kepada 1,272.78 daripada 1,260.53 minggu sebelumnya.
Indeks kewangan melonjak 172.90 mata kepada 11,053.40, Indeks Perladangan meningkat 82.82 mata kepada 6,362.91 manakala Indeks Perusahaan susut 2.26 mata kepada 2,654.51.
Indeks FBM Emas meningkat 114.13 mata kepada 8,507.61, Indeks FBM Top 100 bertambah 95.34 mata kepada 8,308.89, Indeks FBM70 naik 155.84 mata kepada 8,269.22 dan Indeks FBM Ace pula 81.06 mata lebih tinggi kepada 4,299.58.
Sejumlah 2.223 bilion saham bernilai RM2.978 bilion bertukar tangan dalam minggu ini berbanding 1.714 bilion saham bernilai RM2.713 billon diniagakan sebelumnya.
Jumlah dagangan di Pasaran Utama meningkat kepada 1.905 bilion unit bernilai RM2.899 bilion daripada penutup Khamis lalu melibatkan 1.471 bilion saham bernilai RM2.656 bilion.
Jumlah dagangan waran panggilan melonjak kepada 104.154 juta unit bernilai RM18.766 milion daripada 46.024 juta unit bernilai RM6.693 juta sebelumnya.
Jumlah dagangan Pasaran ACE bertambah baik kepada 146.994 juta saham bernilai RM39.569 juta daripada Khamis lalu berjumlah 140.415 juta saham bernilai RM35.003 juta
FBM KLCI futures: Bulls rule but resistance looms
THE FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) futures January contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed at 1269 with an open interest of 14,440 contracts last week.
Nothing unexpected took place during the holiday-shortened week as trading was dogged by benign volatility despite a slight pick-up in volume. This may be attributed to rollover activities as traders closed out year-end contracts. Moving into the new year and with a new spot month contract, trading may pick up gradually.
Consolidation activities dominated trading for the past three weeks as momentum began to slow down ahead of the year-end. The first full week's trading in the new year may see renewed interest in the coming days.
Momentum has slowed tremendously in the past weeks with the daily Relative Strength Index and the Commodity Channel Index settling back to the neutral region after their short trip into overbought territory. The January contact will likely complete its cycle by dipping closer to the oversold region early this week before any rebound takes place. Here, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is nearing a positive crossover, securing the bulls in the short-term view.
The spot contract's weekly chart has settled below the upper Bollinger Band but has remained above the mid lines, suggesting that the bulls are still in control. What is troubling, however, is the eleventh hour signal on its MACD lines which are about to initiate a negative crossover - this could signal some complications ahead as the bulls' path may not be a straight and easy one. Trading volatility could pick up and there may be key resistance ahead for the futures contract, starting at the 1,300 level.
Tactically, for this week, trading in the spot contract may still be limited to the 1,250-1,280 range. However, it may initiate fresh attempts to crack this band and may begin by mounting a challenge to the latter by the end of the week.
Technical outlook
The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains negative with the faster below the signal line. Both lines remain at the positive region.
Nothing unexpected took place during the holiday-shortened week as trading was dogged by benign volatility despite a slight pick-up in volume. This may be attributed to rollover activities as traders closed out year-end contracts. Moving into the new year and with a new spot month contract, trading may pick up gradually.
Consolidation activities dominated trading for the past three weeks as momentum began to slow down ahead of the year-end. The first full week's trading in the new year may see renewed interest in the coming days.
Momentum has slowed tremendously in the past weeks with the daily Relative Strength Index and the Commodity Channel Index settling back to the neutral region after their short trip into overbought territory. The January contact will likely complete its cycle by dipping closer to the oversold region early this week before any rebound takes place. Here, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is nearing a positive crossover, securing the bulls in the short-term view.
The spot contract's weekly chart has settled below the upper Bollinger Band but has remained above the mid lines, suggesting that the bulls are still in control. What is troubling, however, is the eleventh hour signal on its MACD lines which are about to initiate a negative crossover - this could signal some complications ahead as the bulls' path may not be a straight and easy one. Trading volatility could pick up and there may be key resistance ahead for the futures contract, starting at the 1,300 level.
Tactically, for this week, trading in the spot contract may still be limited to the 1,250-1,280 range. However, it may initiate fresh attempts to crack this band and may begin by mounting a challenge to the latter by the end of the week.
Technical outlook
The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains negative with the faster below the signal line. Both lines remain at the positive region.
InsiderAsia model portfolio
TRADING on Bursa Malaysia was relatively quiet in the holiday-shortened week. Most investors were either on holiday for the extended Christmas-New Year break, or were content to sit on the sidelines and await new leads after making sizable gains for the year.
For the week, FBM KLCI gained 8.9 points or 0.7% to end at 1,272.8 points.
This capped a very good year for the local stock market — and indeed global equity bourses. The year had started off on a very bad note as the financial crisis was in full storm following the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2009. The declines extended into March before global bourses rebounded strongly and in unison until the end of the year.
For the year, the FBM KLCI gained a total of 396 points or 45.2% after rising from 876.8 points at the start of the year and ending at 1,272.8 points. At its lowest point, the index fell to 838 points in March.
While the gains were slightly less than most regional bourses, it should be noted that the local stock market and domestic economy was relatively more resilient during the crisis.
As a comparison, key market indices in China, India, Taiwan and Indonesia surged 78%-87% for the year. Hong Kong was up 52%, South Korea rose 50% and Singapore was up 64%, but Japan lagged the region with a 19% gain.
After a strong performance in 2009, equity bourses are likely to face more challenging conditions in 2010, depending on the pace and sustainability of the recovery ahead. Much of the recovery in the last two quarters have been driven by stimulus measures and there is a risk of growth dipping in 2H10 as these measures are withdrawn or expire, especially in the US.
There were few fresh domestic leads for investors last week, apart from firming commodity prices. The rise in commodity prices came as the US dollar stopped its recent appreciation trend after a strong rally triggered by sovereign debt concerns in Dubai and Greece. Crude oil prices rose to near US$80 (RM273.60) per barrel while crude palm oil prices increased to about RM2,650 per tonne.
Wall Street was also fairly subdued in light trading, despite several better than expected US economic data released last week.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index rose from 50.6 in November to 52.9 in December. The rise is welcomed as consumer spending is key to a sustained recovery in the US economy, as it accounts for 70% of the economy. A sustained recovery in US consumer spending depends on consumer sentiment, personal incomes, employment and home prices, among others.
The Chicago purchasing manager's index rose to 60 in December from 56.1 in November, the highest since January 2006 and above expectations.
On the other hand, the recovery in US home prices stalled in October, but home prices continued to rise in the UK. The S&P/Case-Schiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was unchanged in October after a 0.4% rise in September. Economists had expected a 0.2% rise. Nonertheless, the annual rate of decline imprived from 9.3% to 7.3% in October.
UK home prices rose for the eighth consecutive month in December to end the year 6% higher, according to mortgage lender Nationwide. However, the monthly rise of 0.4% in December was the smallest since April and the lender cautioned that the outlook for 2010 remained uncertain.
Portfolio review
Our basket of 18 stocks fared extremely well last week, surging 3.2% for the week compared with the FBM KLCI's 0.7% rise. Including our large cash reserves (for which no interest is imputed), the total portfolio value increased by 2.4% to RM524,875.
Our model portfolio's total value and returns represent a significant achievement compared with our initial capital of just RM160,000. We started the model portfolio on March 3, 2003.
Our total profits are very substantial at RM364,875. Of this amount, RM223,866 has already been realised from earlier sales.
Since its inception, our model portfolio has registered a hefty return of 228% compared with our capital of RM160,000. By comparison, the FBM KLCI was up by 96.8% over the same period, even though it has been less representative of the broader market's performance. Plus, our portfolio holds a significant amount of non-interest yielding cash at all times for prudence sake.
We currently have surplus cash of RM127,815 for future investments, and the portfolio's equity weighting currently stands at 76%, which we are comfortable with.
Last week, we had 14 gaining stocks and four losing ones.
HELP International Corp was the week's biggest gainer, rising 11.6% to RM1.92 after reporting a sterling set of final results for FY Oct 2009 that saw net profit rise 31% to a record RM15.5 million despite the recession last year. This continues its double-digit growth trend underscores the education company's resilience and strong branding.
Other major gainers for the week include Muhibbah (up 7%), Faber Group (up 5.2%), Notion VTec (up 5%), Dijaya and Selangor PROPERTIES [] (both up 4.8%). The week's losers were marginal, led by 3A Resources (down 2.6%) and MyEG (down 1.1%)
We are keeping our portfolio unchanged.
For the week, FBM KLCI gained 8.9 points or 0.7% to end at 1,272.8 points.
This capped a very good year for the local stock market — and indeed global equity bourses. The year had started off on a very bad note as the financial crisis was in full storm following the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2009. The declines extended into March before global bourses rebounded strongly and in unison until the end of the year.
For the year, the FBM KLCI gained a total of 396 points or 45.2% after rising from 876.8 points at the start of the year and ending at 1,272.8 points. At its lowest point, the index fell to 838 points in March.
While the gains were slightly less than most regional bourses, it should be noted that the local stock market and domestic economy was relatively more resilient during the crisis.
As a comparison, key market indices in China, India, Taiwan and Indonesia surged 78%-87% for the year. Hong Kong was up 52%, South Korea rose 50% and Singapore was up 64%, but Japan lagged the region with a 19% gain.
After a strong performance in 2009, equity bourses are likely to face more challenging conditions in 2010, depending on the pace and sustainability of the recovery ahead. Much of the recovery in the last two quarters have been driven by stimulus measures and there is a risk of growth dipping in 2H10 as these measures are withdrawn or expire, especially in the US.
There were few fresh domestic leads for investors last week, apart from firming commodity prices. The rise in commodity prices came as the US dollar stopped its recent appreciation trend after a strong rally triggered by sovereign debt concerns in Dubai and Greece. Crude oil prices rose to near US$80 (RM273.60) per barrel while crude palm oil prices increased to about RM2,650 per tonne.
Wall Street was also fairly subdued in light trading, despite several better than expected US economic data released last week.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index rose from 50.6 in November to 52.9 in December. The rise is welcomed as consumer spending is key to a sustained recovery in the US economy, as it accounts for 70% of the economy. A sustained recovery in US consumer spending depends on consumer sentiment, personal incomes, employment and home prices, among others.
The Chicago purchasing manager's index rose to 60 in December from 56.1 in November, the highest since January 2006 and above expectations.
On the other hand, the recovery in US home prices stalled in October, but home prices continued to rise in the UK. The S&P/Case-Schiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas was unchanged in October after a 0.4% rise in September. Economists had expected a 0.2% rise. Nonertheless, the annual rate of decline imprived from 9.3% to 7.3% in October.
UK home prices rose for the eighth consecutive month in December to end the year 6% higher, according to mortgage lender Nationwide. However, the monthly rise of 0.4% in December was the smallest since April and the lender cautioned that the outlook for 2010 remained uncertain.
Portfolio review
Our basket of 18 stocks fared extremely well last week, surging 3.2% for the week compared with the FBM KLCI's 0.7% rise. Including our large cash reserves (for which no interest is imputed), the total portfolio value increased by 2.4% to RM524,875.
Our model portfolio's total value and returns represent a significant achievement compared with our initial capital of just RM160,000. We started the model portfolio on March 3, 2003.
Our total profits are very substantial at RM364,875. Of this amount, RM223,866 has already been realised from earlier sales.
Since its inception, our model portfolio has registered a hefty return of 228% compared with our capital of RM160,000. By comparison, the FBM KLCI was up by 96.8% over the same period, even though it has been less representative of the broader market's performance. Plus, our portfolio holds a significant amount of non-interest yielding cash at all times for prudence sake.
We currently have surplus cash of RM127,815 for future investments, and the portfolio's equity weighting currently stands at 76%, which we are comfortable with.
Last week, we had 14 gaining stocks and four losing ones.
HELP International Corp was the week's biggest gainer, rising 11.6% to RM1.92 after reporting a sterling set of final results for FY Oct 2009 that saw net profit rise 31% to a record RM15.5 million despite the recession last year. This continues its double-digit growth trend underscores the education company's resilience and strong branding.
Other major gainers for the week include Muhibbah (up 7%), Faber Group (up 5.2%), Notion VTec (up 5%), Dijaya and Selangor PROPERTIES [] (both up 4.8%). The week's losers were marginal, led by 3A Resources (down 2.6%) and MyEG (down 1.1%)
We are keeping our portfolio unchanged.
For investors, that was easy. Now comes 2010
LONDON: For some people, investing in 2009 was easy -- just put your money into oversold riskier assets and watch them rise, according to Reuters.
It looks like 2010 could be a lot more difficult, requiring selection and market timing to bring in the best results.
In early March this year, investors decided that a) the financial system was not going to collapse into a new Great Depression and b) as a result, riskier assets such as stocks and high-yielding bonds had sold off too much.
The gains of 2009 -- as much as 30 percent for world stocks year-to-date, 72 percent since early March -- came in the main from across-the-board buying.
The more sold-off the asset had been, the higher it rose as investors almost indiscriminately stampeded out of what had by then become virtually zero-yielding cash funds in favor of any yield they could find.
It was essentially triggered by authorities making clear they would not let another major bank go under, a la Lehman Brothers, and by central banks pumping liquidity into the system.
Entering the new year, however, a lot of this has changed. Large price rises have eaten up what were seen as historic opportunities and central banks are preparing to haul back the liquidity. Some tight 2009 correlations are already breaking down, leaving investors to work a bit harder for their buck.
"2010 is going to be a year of discrimination with a very long bias toward quality," said Bob Parker, vice chairman of Credit Suisse's asset management arm.
The need for more selective thinking also comes from the state of the global economy, which although improving, is both uneven and fragile. Investors have become more cautious about the investment backdrop as a result, a caution intensified by debt problems in Dubai, Greece, Spain and elsewhere.
"Cyclical tailwinds and structural headwinds," is how William De Vijlder, global chief investment officer of Fortis Investments, described the current investment climate.
QUALITY PLEASE
What this means for equities is that investors are likely to be much more selective in what they buy, even if they do still believe that stocks will rally.
Reuters polls showed on Wednesday that most investors are expecting equities to continue rising next year, although at nothing like the same rate they have been.
A quality pick, Credit Suisse's Parker said, would be a company with low leverage, a high dividend and the expectation of keeping it, free cash flow, and a strong market share also with the ability to keep it.
Wealth manager Banque de Luxembourg has a similar slant, seeing defensives such as utilities attracting attention.
"It makes a lot of sense to go out of things that are very cyclical and to go into things that are more defensive and pay interesting dividends," said Guy Wagner, the bank's chief investment officer.
And as investors get picky about stocks, the same is likely to go for regions and other asset classes.
While emerging markets remain a favorite for many investors in 2010, focus is mainly on fiscally sound countries in Asia, such as China, rather than on, say, eastern Europe.
"(There will be) more differentiation rather than just buying an asset class or region," said Wayne Bowers, chief executive officer for Northern Trust Global Investments' international division.
Northern Trust on Wednesday unveiled a euro zone government inflation-linked bond fund but constructed its benchmark to exclude Greece and Italy, two of the area's weaker elements.
In effect, rather than just go underweight on those bonds, that said the fund simply wanted nothing to do with them.
WHAT IF?
The big risk to this "be picky" scenario is that the assumptions about 2010's economic performance turn out to be false.
If -- and it is a big if -- global growth were to take off sharply, riskier assets would most likely continue the climb that they have seen this year.
True, such growth would bring with it earlier interest rates hikes and a quicker end to liquidity-pumping exercises by central banks.
But the reasons would be positive, and the resulting sell off in government bonds would drive money into a broad swathe of equities and the like.
It is not expected to happen. But then again, who predicted the booming risk market of 2009 this time last year? - Reuters
It looks like 2010 could be a lot more difficult, requiring selection and market timing to bring in the best results.
In early March this year, investors decided that a) the financial system was not going to collapse into a new Great Depression and b) as a result, riskier assets such as stocks and high-yielding bonds had sold off too much.
The gains of 2009 -- as much as 30 percent for world stocks year-to-date, 72 percent since early March -- came in the main from across-the-board buying.
The more sold-off the asset had been, the higher it rose as investors almost indiscriminately stampeded out of what had by then become virtually zero-yielding cash funds in favor of any yield they could find.
It was essentially triggered by authorities making clear they would not let another major bank go under, a la Lehman Brothers, and by central banks pumping liquidity into the system.
Entering the new year, however, a lot of this has changed. Large price rises have eaten up what were seen as historic opportunities and central banks are preparing to haul back the liquidity. Some tight 2009 correlations are already breaking down, leaving investors to work a bit harder for their buck.
"2010 is going to be a year of discrimination with a very long bias toward quality," said Bob Parker, vice chairman of Credit Suisse's asset management arm.
The need for more selective thinking also comes from the state of the global economy, which although improving, is both uneven and fragile. Investors have become more cautious about the investment backdrop as a result, a caution intensified by debt problems in Dubai, Greece, Spain and elsewhere.
"Cyclical tailwinds and structural headwinds," is how William De Vijlder, global chief investment officer of Fortis Investments, described the current investment climate.
QUALITY PLEASE
What this means for equities is that investors are likely to be much more selective in what they buy, even if they do still believe that stocks will rally.
Reuters polls showed on Wednesday that most investors are expecting equities to continue rising next year, although at nothing like the same rate they have been.
A quality pick, Credit Suisse's Parker said, would be a company with low leverage, a high dividend and the expectation of keeping it, free cash flow, and a strong market share also with the ability to keep it.
Wealth manager Banque de Luxembourg has a similar slant, seeing defensives such as utilities attracting attention.
"It makes a lot of sense to go out of things that are very cyclical and to go into things that are more defensive and pay interesting dividends," said Guy Wagner, the bank's chief investment officer.
And as investors get picky about stocks, the same is likely to go for regions and other asset classes.
While emerging markets remain a favorite for many investors in 2010, focus is mainly on fiscally sound countries in Asia, such as China, rather than on, say, eastern Europe.
"(There will be) more differentiation rather than just buying an asset class or region," said Wayne Bowers, chief executive officer for Northern Trust Global Investments' international division.
Northern Trust on Wednesday unveiled a euro zone government inflation-linked bond fund but constructed its benchmark to exclude Greece and Italy, two of the area's weaker elements.
In effect, rather than just go underweight on those bonds, that said the fund simply wanted nothing to do with them.
WHAT IF?
The big risk to this "be picky" scenario is that the assumptions about 2010's economic performance turn out to be false.
If -- and it is a big if -- global growth were to take off sharply, riskier assets would most likely continue the climb that they have seen this year.
True, such growth would bring with it earlier interest rates hikes and a quicker end to liquidity-pumping exercises by central banks.
But the reasons would be positive, and the resulting sell off in government bonds would drive money into a broad swathe of equities and the like.
It is not expected to happen. But then again, who predicted the booming risk market of 2009 this time last year? - Reuters
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About Me
- Nuang
- Ibrahim bin Ramli@Nuang started his career with CIMB Wealth Advisors Berhad as Agency Manager in April, 2008.Previously he was an Internal Auditors and Accounts Executive with Perodua Sales Sdn Bhd since 17 August, 1994. His background:- 1.Certified of Achievement for Master Sales Leadership from Dr Lawrence Walter Ng of President of The Art Of Learning and International Of Learning Without Learning 2.Certified for eXtra Ordinary Performance of Lawrence Walter Award Certificate for One Million Ringgit Club 2007 3. Certified Life & General insurances 4. Conferred with Diploma in Business Studiess & Bachelor of Business Admin(Hons)Finance from UiTM, Terengganu Branch & Shah Alam respectively;
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